The RIBA has published its Future Trends Survey results for September 2025.
The September RIBA Future Workload Index stands at -2, falling into negative territory for the first time since January, and continuing the downward trend seen since July.
A negative balance indicates that, overall, practices expect workloads to decrease during the next three months.
Twenty-one per cent of practices anticipate an increase in workloads, while 23% expect a decline. Fifty-six per cent expect workloads to remain stable.
This negative index figure is the result of a worsening outlook among smaller practices (those with 1 to 10 staff). Medium and largesized practices (those with more than 10 staff) remain firmly optimistic about future workloads.
The regional picture has also deteriorated this month, with several regions now anticipating falling workloads.
Looking at the outlook by sector, the Commercial sector has softened slightly, but remains comparatively strong. The outlook for the three other monitored sectors has become negative, with the outlook for the Private Housing sector continuing to deteriorate.
Current workloads remain lower than a year ago. The average practice workload has decreased by 9% over the past twelve months.
The positive outlook for both permanent and temporary staffing levels has continued this month.
In September, the outlook for small practices (those with 1 to 10 staff) fell further into negative territory, with the small practice Workload Index posting a -8 figure, down from -5 in August.
Eighteen per cent of small practices anticipate an increase in workloads in the next three months, 25% expect a decrease, and 57% anticipate no change.
In continued contrast, the outlook for large (51+ staff) and medium-sized practices (11 -50 staff) continues to strengthen. Their combined Workload Index rose to +39 in August, the highest point for 12 months. Forty-six per cent of these practices expect workload growth, 7% anticipate contraction, and 46% expect no change.
The outlook has deteriorated in all regions, with several areas now having negative workload expectations.
London’s Workload Index remained positive with a +9 Workload Index, although this is a drop of 5 balance points when compared with last month’s +14 figure. The North of England also remains optimistic about future work, posting a +13 Workload Index, although this is down 9 points when compared to last month.
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All other regions have seen their outlook fall into negative territory. The Workload Index for the Midlands and East Anglia fell from +1 in August to -16 in July. For Wales and the West, the Index fell from +8 to -2, and in the South of England, it fell from +1 to -9.
The sectoral outlook has seen further falls this month. All sectors have seen their outlook deteriorate, and three of the four sectors now expect workloads to contract in the next three months.
Confidence in the private housing sector has fallen further. The sector’s Workload Index now stands at -9, down from -7 last month, as practices, on balance, expect housing workloads to contract in the next three months.
The outlook for the public sector has further deteriorated, with the Index falling to -7 in September from -4 in August.
The Workload Index for the community sector has also fallen, with a balance figure of -4 in September, down from -1 in August.
The outlook for the commercial sector remains positive at +3 this month, although the outlook has softened when compared with last month’s +8 balance.
Commentary
This month’s RIBA Future Trends findings show a shift in sentiment about future work among the profession, with the overall Workload Index turning negative for the first time since January.
Behind this headline figure, however, medium and large practices (which account for the bulk of practice revenue) are increasingly confident about future work, while smaller practices (which make up the largest number of practices) are becoming increasingly pessimistic.
Despite weaker workload forecasts, overall, staffing expectations remain broadly stable among smaller practices and positive among medium and large practices. While short-term workload expectations are weakening, practices are not,overall, looking to shed staff. This suggests some confidence for longer-term prospects.
Commentary received this month remains downbeat overall, with concerns about the overall health of the UK economy being raised by several practices.
A climate of economic uncertainty is deterring client investment, particularly as investors await the upcoming budget. Client confidence is seen as being further weakened by high borrowing costs and elevated construction costs.
Practices report project delays linked to slow planning progress and the effects of the Building Safety Act. Profitability remains under pressure due to downward pressure on fees.