The RIBA has published its Future Trends Survey results for May 2026.
Architects’ outlook for future work weakened further in May, as the RIBA Workload Index fell for a third consecutive month. The fall is largely due to a decrease in the proportion of practices expecting workloads to grow, rather than a large increase in the proportion expecting workloads to contract.
This month, the RIBA workload Index stands at -9, a six-point decline from April’s -3 figure, and a 14-point decline from this year’s high of +5, in February. A negative balance figure indicates that, on balance, practices expect workloads to decrease over the next three months.
Eighteen per cent of practices anticipate an increase in workloads (against 24% last month), while 28% expect a decline. The remaining 54% expect workloads to hold steady.
Confidence has again weakened across practices of all sizes. Smaller practices have seen their outlook slip further into negative territory. Large and medium-sized practices remain optimistic about future workloads, but their outlook has again weakened.
The regional picture reflects the overall weak workload expectations, although some regions have returned to a positive outlook.
The sectoral outlook is similarly subdued, with three of the four monitored sectors expected to see declining future workloads. The commercial sector has turned negative this month, while the private housing sector has fallen further. The public sector has recovered somewhat.
May sees practices report workloads nine per cent lower than a year ago, on average.
The outlook for permanent staffing has weakened slightly as the RIBA Staffing Index posts a zero figure, suggesting that steady staff levels are expected overall.
The outlook for temporary staffing remains marginally negative.
Workload expectations by practice size
The Workload Index for small practices (those with 1 to 10 staff) fell a further three points in May, from -10 in April to -13 this month. Seventeen per cent of small practices anticipate increasing workloads in the next three months, while 28% expect workloads to contract, and 54% anticipate no change.
The outlook for large (51+ staff) and mediumsized practices (11 -50 staff) remains optimistic but has again weakened. Their combined Workload Index stands at +14 in May, down from +25 last month. Among these practices, 29% expect workloads to grow, 14% anticipate contraction, and 57% expect no change.
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The regional outlook
The regional picture is mixed this month, with some areas reporting a further decline in future workload expectations, while others see a return of confidence.
London sees its workload expectations return to positive territory, with an index of +4, up from zero last month. Wales and the West has also posted a positive balance figure this month, having recovered strongly, up from 0 in April to +18 in May.
While still negative overall, the South of England’s outlook has improved, with its balance rising to -4, up from -9 last month.
On the downside, the North of England has seen confidence deteriorate, with a workload Index falling from -4 in April to -10 in May. The Midlands and East Anglia also sees confidence down, from -1 to -21.
Workload expectations by sector
Private housing is again the weakest performing sector this month, with its outlook declining from -9 in April to -11 this month. Smaller practices remain the most pessimistic about housing, and the sector outlook is subdued across all regions.
The commercial sector has dipped into negative territory this month, with a -1 balance, compared with +2 last month. While medium and large-sized practices remain optimistic about expected workloads in the sector, smaller practices are pessimistic.
The outlook for the public sector has improved somewhat this month, up from a -4 balance in April to zero in May, suggesting steady sector workloads to come.
The outlook for the community sector remains negative and has deteriorated. This month, the sector’s Index fell by six points, down from -2 in April to -8 in May.
Commentary
The profession’s assessment of future work remains subdued, as confidence in future workload continues to wane, especially among smaller practices.
On the plus side, the outlook among medium and larger practices remains positive, and the outlook for London, the largest architectural market, has improved.
Overall, however, the construction market remains challenging and faces a succession of headwinds. Concerns around inflation, interest rates, public finances and the broader economic outlook all continue to weigh on future workloads. 2026 has been a difficult year so far, with weak overall confidence, rising energy prices, increased cost pressures, and challenging credit conditions, all coming together to constrict activity. The ONS have reported a fall in new orders of over 10% in the first quarter of 2026, when compared with Q4 2025.
This month’s commentary describes these challenging conditions. Some practices report workloads and confidence being at long-term lows, with a quiet spring bringing few new enquiries. Practices also describe projects being paused or delayed as political and economic uncertainty persists and global instability fails to retreat. May sees a market characterised as highly competitive, with intense fee pressure, rising costs, a high regulatory burden, and squeezed margins.
While commentary this month is overall negative, some practices report an improved public sector and continued demand in specialist sectors, including hospitality, and in wealthier regions. Practices also describe the importance of international markets to them.